Q&A with federal climate employee

The Little Hawk interviewed Frank Niepold of the National Ocean and Atomospheric Administration.  Addition information can be read in italics.

How is climate change going to affect us on a national level? International?

The best answer to this question come from two climate assessments. The assessment is a process in which scientists survey existing scientific studies and peer-reviewed literature. They then integrate, and synthesize science, within and between scientific disciplines and across sectors and regions.

The two reports, one international and the other is national focused are IPCC and NCA:
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) produces reports that support the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which is the main international treaty on climate change. The US is a big part of this process.

The ultimate objective of the UNFCCC is to “stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous human-induced interference with the climate system”. The term dangerous was informed by science but is a determination by political leaders from over 192 countries. IPCC reports cover “the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.” National Climate Assessment (NCA)  report is the official US Government’s “state of the Union” about climate change, vetted by 13 Federal Agencies for the United States.

Informs the nation about already observed changes, the current status of the climate, and anticipated trends for the future
Integrates scientific information from multiple sources and sectors to highlight key findings and significant gaps in our knowledge
Establishes consistent methods for evaluating climate impacts in the U.S. in the context of broader global change
Provides input to Federal science priorities and are used by U.S. citizens, communities, and businesses as they create more sustainable and environmentally sound plans for the nation’s future.
Focuses on the United States exclusively, providing solid information on each of eight geographic regions, coasts, and ocean and marine resources

USGCRP is required by the Global Change Research Act of 1990 to conduct a National Climate Assessment (NCA). A team of more than 300 experts, guided by a 60-member National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee produced the full report – the largest and most diverse team to produce a U.S. climate assessment.

How important is climate change as a political issue? Is there anything we should be doing as a nation?

That’s a good question. What I can say is this. In the NCA report’s overview it says the following in the Response Options section:

“As the impacts of climate change are becoming more prevalent, Americans face choices. Especially because of past emissions of long-lived heat-trapping gases, some additional climate change and related impacts are now unavoidable. This is due to the long-lived nature of many of these gases, as well as the amount of heat absorbed and retained by the oceans and other responses within the climate system. The amount of future climate change, however, will still largely be determined by choices society makes about emissions. Lower emissions of heat-trapping gases and particles mean less future warming and less-severe impacts; higher emissions mean more warming and more severe impacts. Efforts to limit emissions or increase carbon uptake fall into a category of response options known as “mitigation,” which refers to reducing the amount and speed of future climate change by reducing emissions of heat-trapping gases or removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.”

The section ends with this:

“The cumulative weight of the scientific evidence contained in this report confirms that climate change is affecting the American people now, and that choices we make will affect our future and that of future generations.”

When I read the extent of the impacts happening already, the increasing impact to the systems we rely on and communities we care about and the choices we make will affect our future and that of future generations, I conclude that this issue is among if not the most important one we face together. This is why I have personally decided to dedicate my career to addressing the challenges and opportunities climate presents to us all.

While referencing other major challenges facing the world — including disease, economic inequality and the threat of terrorism — President Barack Obama declared climate change to be the one issue that will define the contours of this century more dramatically than any other at the UN Climate Summit  back on September 23rd 2014.

How is technology changing the way we react to climate change? What technology have we developed for this purpose?

Above, I said I was dedicating my career to addressing challenges and opportunities climate presents to us all. This question relates to both the challenges and opportunities climate presents. New work on renewable technologies is finding that we could make the choices about emissions the scientific community say needs to be made and not negatively impact, but even positively impact our nations economy. What that means we could make 80% of our electricity from renewable technologies (land-based wind and solar) by as early between 2040 and 2050 with a cost savings. That’s big on many levels.

This finding is supported by this the Department of Energy’s The National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL) Renewable Electricity Futures Study is an initial investigation of the extent to which renewable energy supply can meet the electricity demands of the continental United States over the next several decades. This study explores the implications and challenges of very high renewable electricity generation levels—from 30% up to 90%, focusing on 80%, of all U.S. electricity generation—in 2050. A emerging NOAA study thinks this could come as early as 2040.

Another key technologies in this are electric cars, energy efficiency, and bio-fuels like algae based bio-diesel that could make jet fuel.

What do you think of the decision made at the APEC conference about emission reduction? Was this a major step?

I am sorry, I don’t know this conference. What was the decision? To determine if it is a major step, I would recommend looking at the Mitigation chapter in the NCA report.

They say in the overview:

“The amount of future climate change will largely be determined by choices society makes about emissions. Lower emissions of heat trapping gases mean less future warming and less severe impacts. Emissions can be reduced through improved energy efficiency and switching to low-carbon or non-carbon energy sources.”

Both voluntary activities and a variety of policies and measures that lower emissions are currently in place at federal, state, and local levels in the United States, even though there is no comprehensive national climate legislation. Over the remainder of this century, aggressive and sustained greenhouse gas emission reductions by the United States and by other nations would be needed to reduce global emissions to a level consistent with the lower scenario (B1) analyzed in this assessment.

This is where things get technical. In the NCA in the Mitigation chapter it says:

The B1 scenario (rapid emissions reduction) is close to the 4.5 W/m2 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and to a similar case (Level 2) analyzed in a previous federal study. Those assessments find that, to limit the economic costs, annual global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industrial sources like cement manufacture, need to peak by 2035 to 2040 at around 44 billion tons of CO2, and decline thereafter. The scale of the task can be seen in the fact that these global emissions were already at 34 billion tons CO2 in 2011, and over the previous decade they rose at around 0.92 billion tons of CO2 per year.

Key here is the B1 scenario does not match the lowest RCP (2.6) and the climate scenario that would reach the international targets to avoid a dangerous future climate. To do this would require an even more rapid turnaround and negative net emissions – that is, removing more CO2 from the air than is emitted globally – in this century. Does this make sense?

How will climate change affect individuals? How soon?

The NCA finds the climate changes already observed and they are projected for the future.

“Global climate is projected to continue to change over this century and beyond, but there is still time to act to limit the amount of change and the extent of damaging impacts.”

The NCA overview section has the following findings and evidence;

“Climate change, once considered an issue for a distant future, has moved firmly into the present. Corn producers in Iowa, oyster growers in Washington State, and maple syrup producers in Vermont are all observing climate-related changes that are outside of recent experience. So, too, are coastal planners in Florida, water managers in the arid Southwest, city dwellers from Phoenix to New York, and Native Peoples on tribal lands from Louisiana to Alaska. This National Climate Assessment concludes that the evidence of human-induced climate change continues to strengthen and that impacts are increasing across the country.”

“Americans are noticing changes all around them. Summers are longer and hotter, and extended periods of unusual heat last longer than any living American has ever experienced. Winters are generally shorter and warmer. Rain comes in heavier downpours. People are seeing changes in the length and severity of seasonal allergies, the plant varieties that thrive in their gardens, and the kinds of birds they see in any particular month in their neighborhoods.”

“Other changes are even more dramatic. Residents of some coastal cities see their streets flood more regularly during storms and high tides. Inland cities near large rivers also experience more flooding, especially in the Midwest and Northeast. Insurance rates are rising in some vulnerable locations, and insurance is no longer available in others. Hotter and drier weather and earlier snow melt mean that wildfires in the West start earlier in the spring, last later into the fall, and burn more acreage. In Arctic Alaska, the summer sea ice that once protected the coasts has receded, and autumn storms now cause more erosion, threatening many communities with relocation.”

“Scientists who study climate change confirm that these observations are consistent with significant changes in Earth’s climatic trends. Long-term, independent records from weather stations, satellites, ocean buoys, tide gauges, and many other data sources all confirm that our nation, like the rest of the world, is warming. Precipitation patterns are changing, sea level is rising, the oceans are becoming more acidic, and the frequency and intensity of some extreme weather events are increasing. Many lines of independent evidence demonstrate that the rapid warming of the past half-century is due primarily to human activities.”

“What is new over the last decade is that we know with increasing certainty that climate change is happening now. While scientists continue to refine projections of the future, observations unequivocally show that climate is changing and that the warming of the past 50 years is primarily due to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from burning coal, oil, and gas, with additional contributions from forest clearing and some agricultural practices.”