Between the Pylons: Fantasy Football Breakdown for Week 9
November 5, 2021
Hello everyone. The voices behind this column and our podcasts are Ben Horwitz, Aaron Stalkfleet and Jacob Williamson. We are current seniors, and involved in various things (and sports) at City. Our shared love of football and aggressive competitiveness is what initially inspired this column. Each week we plan to put out a different fantasy football prediction/analysis for the next NFL week. We appreciate your support and will be competing to see who has the best analysis.
This week we are doing a Boom/Bust analysis. We randomly pick the players below for this week’s games, and we each get to predict whether we think they will go above (Boom) or below (Bust) their ESPN fantasy projections. We each pick two players from each position group. We make picks based on matchups, personal opinion, and player projection. After the first week, we will be keeping track of our personal records of our predictions throughout the season.
OUR RECORDS THROUGH 8 WEEKS
Ben: 29-28
Jacob: 27-30
Aaron: 27-32
This week’s (9) possible choices:
(All based on ESPN projections)
QB Lamar Jackson 23.9 pts
QB Justin Herbert 20.8 pts
QB Joe Burrow 19.3 pts
QB Jordan Love 17.5 pts
RB Alvin Kamara 19.2 pts
RB Dalvin Cook 18.1 pts
RB Darrell Henderson Jr. 17.4 pts
RB Chase Edmonds 13.7 pts
WR Cooper Kupp 23.5 pts
WR Adam Thielen 16.6 pts
WR Diontae Johnson 16.5 pts
WR Keenan Allen 15.1 pts
TE Mark Andrews 13.4 pts
TE Mike Gesicki 11.2 pts
TE Dalton Schultz 10.1 pts
TE Pat Freiermuth 8.3 pts
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Aaron’s Picks Week 9
(Total Record 27-32)
Unfortunately, I followed up a 1-7 week with another below .500 performance of 3-5. I had some tough breaks, missing Najee Harris by 0.4 points and Ja’marr Chase by 3. Zeke not finding the endzone ended up being the difference with his projection too. In any case, I have to be better and we look to bounce back again this week. It should be noted that we are all seemingly struggling at the moment as my counterpart Ben is falling drastically too barely over .500.
QB Justin Herbert 20.8 pts – BOOM
I like Justin Herbert to bounce back this week after a couple of tough performances. Herbert, uncharacteristically the last two weeks has scored 12 and 15 points respectively. This week, he goes up against a mediocre Eagles defense. Again, Hebert bounces back this week and booms his 20.8 projection.
QB Lamar Jackson 23.9 pts – BOOM
Lamar does Lamar things and booms this week against the Vikings. It’s really as simple as that! The Vikings defense is also middle of the pack which should help too.
RB Alvin Kamara 19.2 pts – BOOM
The first week without Jameis Winston at the helm, expect Kamara to go off. The Saints play a rather bad Atlanta Falcons defense on top of that. In any case, Kamara will need to have a ginormous second half of the season for a Saints team that is competing for yet another NFC South title. This selection is of high confidence.
RB Chase Edmonds 13.7 pts – BOOM
This is a low confidence bet because of the configuration of the Cardinals offense. Chase Edmonds has a Pro Bowl QB in Kyler Murray and a great counterpart at RB in James Connor. In simpler terms, many people around him make plays and need the ball so you never really know on any given week his production status. I think Edmonds barely booms this week as the Cardinals find success on the ground this week against the 49ers defense. This selection is on the low end of the confidence of the scale.
WR Adam Thielen 16.6 pts – BOOM
Adam Thielen has scored 19.80 and 29.80 in the last two weeks. Those are over his projection of 16.6 for this week. I think Justin Jefferson takes Marlon Humphrey with him and Thielen has the luxury of a favorable CB matchup. Even if Marlon does match up on Thielen, it won’t be for the whole game and therefore, I like Thielen to boom this week, barely.
WR Diontae Johnson 16.5 pts – BOOM
Diontae Johnson has had a nice, quiet season thus far. He has scored over 14.60 points every start he has made which is incredible for a WR. I like Johnson to boom this week and continue his string of good performances against a Bears defense that is struggling mightily this season.
TE Mark Andrews 13.4 pts – BOOM
Mark Andrews has been the second-best fantasy TE this year in terms of points scored and this week, he has another chance to add to that against the Vikings. I like him to get over the 13.4 mark this week and continue to show why he’s one of the best in the league at his position.
TE Pat Freiermuth 8.3 pts – BOOM
This is one of the trickier projections I will write all week. Freiermuth has strung together two weeks of 14.4 and 12.8 point performances. Prior to that, he had only eclipsed his projection of 8.3 for this week once. I lean boom only because of the last two weeks and maybe he has found his groove. Regardless, it will be close as it always is with TE projections.
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Jacob’s Picks Week 9
(Total Record 27-30)
After going 4-4 last week, I’m feeling very confident with this week’s picks with lots of big-time players. Hopefully, after this week, we will be sitting above .500 on the season.
QB Joe Burrow 19.3 pts – BOOM
Burrow and company take on Browns this week. I like this matchup due to the fact that it’s a division rival and I see the Bengals looking to bounce back this week after a tough loss against the Jets.
QB Jordan Love 17.5 pts – BOOM
This is interesting, to say the least, as a Packers fan. When Rodgers is ruled out for any game, most people would assume that the Packers will struggle and lose because of it. But with that being said, I think Jordan Love puts the world on notice this weekend. With all of the Packers weapons back at the helm for Love to use is going to be exciting to watch. Who knows, maybe after this game people will start talking about the possible future of Green Bay more.
RB Darrell Henderson Jr. 17.4 pts – BUST
While I might have Kupp booming this week, I don’t see the same from Henderson. Kupp and the receiving core will be getting most of the points this week against a suspect Titans secondary. I just don’t see Henderson being able to get enough touches to go over his point total this week.
RB Alvin Kamara 19.2 pts – BOOM
With both Winston and Thomas being out the rest of the season, look to see a heavy dose of Kamara the rest of the season.
WR Cooper Kupp 23.5 pts – BOOM
Kupp is on pace to have the greatest fantasy season for a wide receiver of all time. With the Rams playing the Titans this week, look to see McVay and company exploit the Titans secondary. Kupp will get his fair share of targets this week, and maybe a couple of touchdowns as well.
WR Diontae Johnson 16.5 pts – BOOM
Johnson has been a solid option this season for any fantasy owner. He has yet to go under 14 fantasy points this season and doesn’t seem to be slowing down with production anytime soon. With the Steelers playing the Bears this week who have struggled mightily against the pass, expect Johnson to have himself a day.
TE Mike Gesicki 11.2 pts – BOOM
According to ESPN’s fantasy rankings, Gesicki has been the fourth-best tight end this season. With that being said, he plays for the Dolphins which is extremely tough to swallow. I see Gesicki booming this week solely due to the fact that they play one of the worst teams in all of football this week in the Texans.
TE Pat Freiermuth 8.3 pts – BUST
This is a tough pick for me to make this week because Freiermuth could easily go over this small point total, but at the same time, you never know what could happen. I’m going to go with my gut here and say that he busts this week.
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Ben’s Picks Week 9
(Total Record 29-28)
Yikes. Again I follow up a solid week with a bad one. Had a few tough breaks to go 2-6, multiple picks were missed by 2 points or less but that’s the game. I’m falling to almost even on the year, hopefully, a couple of good weeks can boost me and get me back up to where I was a few weeks ago.
QB Lamar Jackson 23.9 pts – BOOM
Lamar Jackson is seemingly inevitable. He manages to beat his projection any week where he has a decently close matchup, and hopefully, the Vikings will put up a fight. His rushing prowess is elite, and recently his passing has picked up as TE Mark Andrews and WR Marquise Brown have emerged as his favorite targets.
QB Jordan Love 17.5 pts – BOOM
Last-minute change, but I am going boom. Love gets to play an abysmal Chiefs defense in his first start of all time, and hopefully, he takes advantage. With one of the best offensive lines in football and the best WR in the NFL in Davante Adams, his situation could not get much better. In preseason we saw him slinging it downfield, so look for the same on Sunday.
RB Alvin Kamara 19.2 pts – BOOM
Kamara’s future is unknown with Jameis Winston out for the year due to his torn ACL in week 8. Based on the starter, his workload will fluctuate, which is not appealing to his fantasy owners. Hopefully, news on Michael Thomas being out for the year will leave him with his strong role in the Saints offense. Look for a big game this week.
RB Dalvin Cook 18.1 pts – BUST
Dalvin Cook has been unreliable this year, whether that is strictly because he is injury prone, or his role in the offense is different than previous years. It has been a while since the Vikings offense was really rolling and Cook’s production has been limited. I don’t like his matchup against a stingy Ravens defense this week, so I’m taking the under.
WR Cooper Kupp 23.5 pts – BOOM
Cooper Kupp has been unleashed. It is impossible to bet against this guy as he is on pace to have the greatest receiving season of all time. Seemingly out of nowhere, now that he has a competent QB, he is unstoppable. He is leading the league in catches, yards, and TD’s, so I have to give him the benefit of the doubt. I love watching him, and this week will hopefully be another impressive outing.
WR Keenan Allen 15.1 pts – BOOM
Personally, I think Allen’s 15.1 point prediction is nothing less than disrespectful. Against a bad Eagles team, I would think he will see a heavy workload and hopefully break 20 points. I know he has had a quiet year, but I trust him this week as the Chargers look to bounce back from two straight losses.
TE Dalton Schultz 10.1 pts – BOOM
It pains me to say it as a Broncos fan, but this game might be ugly. The Cowboys are one of the most well-rounded offensive teams in the league and against the Broncos average defense and below-average offense, I’m worried we are in for a blowout. I like Schultz as a player, and I think his role in the offense is underrated fantasy-wise. Hopefully, the run game doesn’t dominate and the Cowboys are forced to make some passes.
TE Pat Freiermuth 8.3 pts – BUST
The Steelers play the Bears on Monday Night, and I don’t have much to say. It will most likely be a low-scoring game, and I think Friermuth has too inconsistent of a role in his offense to succeed. At this point, his points depend on him grabbing a TD.