Hello everyone. The voices behind this column and our podcasts are Ben Horwitz, Aaron Stalkfleet and Jacob Williamson. We are current seniors and involved in various things (and sports) at City. Our shared love of football and aggressive competitiveness is what initially inspired this column. Each week we plan to put out a different fantasy football prediction/analysis for the next NFL week. We appreciate your support and will be competing to see who has the best analysis.

This week we are doing a Boom/Bust analysis. We randomly pick the players below for this week’s games, and we each get to predict whether we think they will go above (Boom) or below (Bust) their ESPN fantasy projections. We each pick two players from each position group. We make picks based on matchups, personal opinions, and player projection. After the first week, we will be keeping track of our personal records of our predictions throughout the season. 

OUR RECORDS THROUGH 14 WEEKS 

Ben: 49-46

Jacob: 46-49

Aaron: 47-51

Note – This is the second to last Fantasy Football Breakdown before the end of the season for us

This weeks (15) possible choices:

(All based on ESPN projections)

QB Justin Herbert 21.7 pts vs. KC

QB Tom Brady 21.6 pts vs. NO

QB Aaron Rodgers 19.9 pts @ BAL
QB Justin Fields 18.1 pts vs. MIN

RB Austin Ekeler 19.5 pts vs. KC
RB Nick Chubb 17.9 pts vs. LV
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire 13.4 pts @ LAC
RB Melvin Gordon III 13.0 pts vs. CIN

WR Deebo Samuel 17.6 pts vs. ATL

WR Ja’marr Chase 15.1 pts @ DEN
WR Tyler Lockett 14.9 pts @ LAR
WR Amari Cooper 13.4 pts @ NYG

TE Travis Kelce 15.6 pts @ LAC
TE Dalton Schultz 9.1 pts @ NYG

TE Mike Gesicki 10.6 pts vs. NYJ
TE Dallas Goedert 10.4 pts vs. WSH

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Jacob’s Picks Week 15

(Total Record 46-49) 

Not having Higbee play this past week ultimately put me 3-4. With that being said, the goal is to get back to .500 or better this week. With having to go 6-2 or better this week, the players I have chosen definitely show promise for helping me achieve this goal. Hopefully, after this week, I will have solidified myself in 2nd place in our rankings only behind Ben.

QB Aaron Rodgers 19.9 pts @ BAL – BOOM

After scoring the most points all season with the win over Chicago last week, Rodgers comes into this week as a real threat against the Ravens. I expect this to be a high-scoring game for both teams and because of this, I have Rodgers booming this week against Baltimore.

QB Tom Brady 21.6 pts vs. NO – BOOM

The Bucs are one of the top teams in the league right now, having the G.O.A.T at the quarterback position definitely helps. Brady is the number one QB in fantasy this season and is averaging almost 30 points per game. This pick is almost a no-brainer due to the fact that the Bucs are red hot while the Saints have been one of the worst teams in the league due to QB issues. 

RB Austin Ekeler 19.5 pts vs. KC – BOOM

Ekeler has been a huge piece for the Chargers offense this season and is the second-ranked running back in fantasy because of his ability to be a dual-threat back in the NFL. While Ekeler is listed as questionable for this week’s Thursday Night game against the Chiefs, I am confident that he will play, and play very well against a mediocre-at-best Chiefs defense. Due to his large role offensively, and who they are going up against. Ekeler is an automatic boom this week for me.

RB Nick Chubb 17.9 pts vs. LV – BUST

Chubb has struggled to find the endzone this season. While Chubb is still in a large role in the Browns offense this season, the fact that he hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown since week 9 is concerning, to say the least. Due to his lack of production the past few weeks, Chubb will be a bust for me.

WR Ja’marr Chase 15.1 pts @ DEN – BOOM

Chase has lived up to expectations his rookie season so far. With the Bengals trying to solidify themselves in the playoffs, they will need to give their best players as many chances as possible to get the ball. With Ja’marr not only being the best wide receiver on that team but one of the top in the NFL already, It would be very hard for me to see him not continuing his successful rookie season this week against the Broncos.  

WR Amari Cooper 13.4 pts @ NYG – BOOM

With Cooper having one of his best performances last week against the WFT, you can expect him to continue to be one of the top performers for the Cowboys this week as they take on their divisional rival, the Giants. Due to him being a top target for Prescott, it’s very hard to not see him do well, especially against one of the worst teams in the league in the Giants.

TE Travis Kelce 15.6 pts @ LAC – BOOM

Kelce has been struggling mightily as of late with only scoring 5 points in back-to-back weeks. Although things haven’t been looking the best, Kelce is the top TE in the league for a reason. Due to this week’s matchup against the Chargers, I see this being a very high-scoring game. This will in turn give Kelce (a top-two target on the team) a chance to shine this week. 

TE Dalton Schultz 9.1 pts @ NYG – BUST

Schultz has had a significant decrease in his role offensively over the past few weeks. Due to this being the case, I don’t see Schultz going over his point projection this week even against the Giants. 

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Ben’s Picks Week 15

(Total Record 49-46) 

In what seems to be a recurring pattern, I follow a good week with an average one. I went 3-4, as Tyler Higbee tested positive for covid before his game on Monday. If I keep up my record, I can stay atop the rankings as the best analyst of the column and take my crown. I need to improve from last week, and hopefully solidify my status. 

QB Justin Herbert 21.7 pts vs. KC – BOOM

Justin Herbert has been nothing short of impressive in just his second year in the NFL. After his ROTY campaign of 2020, I wondered how he would follow that up in his sophomore year and he has definitely exceeded my expectations. He is the epitome of a gunslinger, and he makes some throws that only a couple of other QBs in the entire league can make. He has solidified himself as a top 10, maybe fringe top 5 QB already, and he and the Chargers have something to prove if they make the playoffs this year. They get the red-hot Chiefs at home this week, and although I don’t think they win, I see Herbert surpassing his 21.7 point threshold in what might turn out to be a shootout. Expect him to have even more firepower with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back from the covid list. 

QB Tom Brady 21.6 pts vs. NO – BUST

Since switching to the NFC, Brady has had no issues with getting wins, with the exception of the Saints. For some reason, whether it is gameplan, coaching, or attitude the Saints always have the Bucs number. I actually think that the Bucs grab a win against an injured Saints roster, but Brady does not reach his high projection. I could see him easily getting around 18 points, but 21.6 seems high. Look for any Bucs receiver that is not Mike Evans to succeed in this game, as there are a few inevitables in life. Death, taxes, and Marshon Lattimore owning Mike Evans. 

RB Nick Chubb 17.9 pts vs. LV – BUST
Nick Chubb is a perfect example of why fantasy football value does not necessarily mirror real player value. Chubb as a fantasy asset is fine, as he can have games where he booms with multiple TDs, but in real life he is invaluable. Chubb is rocking a ridiculous 5.5 yards per carry and continues to impact games as one of the best rushers in the league. Unfortunately, he is not a passing threat which significantly dampens his opportunity in fantasy. I think he could have a solid game rushing against the Raiders, but I don’t see him exceeding 17.9 points unless he can get two TDs in what looks to be a low-scoring game from my eyes.

RB Melvin Gordon III 13.0 pts vs. CIN – BOOM
Gordon is a mixed bag. He has scored over 15 points in about half of the first 13 weeks of football, and his fantasy value depends solely on the ability to get into the end zone. Unfortunately, that makes him a less valuable asset as TD dependency is not reliable. However, I think he will get it done this week. The Broncos have seen success when they run the ball well, and Gordon still is the RB1 although Javonte Williams has outplayed him in many games this season. There is no question that Williams is more talented, but if Gordon is producing he will continue to play and split carries with Williams. On any given day one of them can produce more than the other, so let’s hope this week is Gordon’s. 

WR Deebo Samuel 17.6 pts vs. ATL – BOOM

Kyle Shanahan is a genius. All credit to Samuel, who has turned it on this year and shown the incredible ability he possesses, but 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has turned this guy into a monster. Not only is he playing like a top 5 wide receiver, but they want the ball in his hands so much that they have lined him up at RB for most of his snaps in the last few weeks. The crazy thing is, he may be just as good as a rusher as he is pass-catching. Talk about a weapon. I love his game, and I think the Niners handle business at home against Atlanta, and Samuel shows why he has been so successful. 

WR Ja’marr Chase 15.1 pts @ DEN – BUST

I will be the first to tell you that Chase has had an incredible rookie season, one of the best ever for a rookie WR, and he will be dominant in years to come. He and Joe Burrow have continued the fantastic connection from their LSU days, as they seem to produce a 30+ yard TD every single week. All the same, the Broncos defense has been playing lights out recently, allowing only 3 TDs in the last three weeks, while grabbing 4 interceptions. It will be fun to possibly watch Patrick Surtain guard Chase in what will be a rookie duel. One of Denver’s weak points is big plays which Chase and Burrow excel at, but I still don’t think the Broncos let the Bengals or Chase get the better of them in a must-win home game for playoff contention. 

TE Travis Kelce 15.6 pts @ LAC – BOOM
Travis Kelce is the best TE in the league. However, he has been extremely underwhelming at times this season as the Chiefs offense doesn’t look as electric as it was a couple of seasons ago. He needs to have a big game, and what better way to bounce back than against their division rivals the Chargers on Thursday Night Football. It is an important game for both teams as if the Chargers beat the Chiefs for the second time this season they can move within 1 game of the #1 spot in the AFC West. Kelce will have chances to make a difference, and if he can get in the end zone he will break 15.6 points. 

TE Dallas Goedert 10.4 pts vs. WSH – BUST

I got unlucky with my TE picks last week, and Goedert has the chance to screw me over again. I missed Kyle Pitts by about half a point, as he boomed for just the fourth time all year. Goedert just signed a big extension with the Eagles as they look to use him in the future, but I don’t see a lot of room for him to make an impact in this game. I think QB Jalen Hurts and the Eagles RBs see a lot of runs against Washington, in a gritty division game. If they do throw the ball, Goedert might be the first option, but I like Washington keeping this game close and low scoring.

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Aaron’s Picks Week 15

(Total Record 47-51)  

I went 4-4 last week and so I didn’t lose ground, but I certainly didn’t gain any. With only two more weeks left this season of these fantasy football selections, I will need near-stellar performances if I have any shot of finishing ahead of Ben or Jacob for first place. Because of a time-crunched week, my analysis is shorter than usual. However, I feel strongly about my boom and bust selections regardless. 

QB Aaron Rodgers 19.9 pts @ BAL – BOOM

Aaron Rodgers has been phenomenal this year. He is certainly a candidate for MVP and I think he continues his dominance this week in a shootout with the Ravens. Rodgers booms 19.9 in the 25-28 range. Rodgers is coming off of 29.64 and 26.28 performances the last two weeks which is incredible. He has also only gone underneath his projection for this week only twice this year. All of these reasons make me believe he is in for a phenomenal showing against a good Ravens team. 

QB Justin Herbert 21.7 pts vs. KC – BOOM

Justin Herbert is one of the fine young QBs in the league and this week, he will have a great opportunity to perform against a division rival in the Kansas City Chiefs. The winner takes first overall in the AFC West division and Herbert is going to need to have a big performance in order for that to happen. I expect him to boom 21.7 with over 320 passing yards and at least three TDs.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire 13.4 pts @ LAC – BOOM

The Chargers have one of the worst run defenses in the league and CEH should take full advantage of that this week. He is also coming off of a 19.2 pt performance last week in a throttling of the Raiders. I expect him to rush for over 60 yards and have a couple of TDs to his name this week. He booms 13.4 by a wide margin and I’m not sure it’s even close. 

RB Austin Ekeler 19.5 pts vs. KC – BOOM

Having already picked Justin Herbert to boom, it is hard for me to also pick Austin Ekeler. Regardless, because of Austin´s ability in the receiving game even as an RB, his overall presence jumps significantly on any given Sunday. This week, I think that statement is more true than any other week. As aforementioned in previous analysis, the AFC West 1st place spot is on the line. 

WR Tyler Lockett 14.9 pts @ LAR – BOOM

As the season rolls along, Tyler Lockett is finally coming into form. I think he booms this week because of the stretch he has been on recently. Lockett has scored 27.2, 19.8, and 12.6 in his last three games as a matter of fact. The Seahawks square off this week against the Rams and it is going to no doubt be tough. The Rams defense is very solid, but the Wilson-Lockett combo prevails on Sunday and gives the LA Rams a run for their money.

WR Amari Cooper 13.4 pts @ NYG – BOOM
I really like Amari Cooper this week against their division rival New York Giants. Several reasons are responsible for that thinking. I believe Amari is settling in nicely to his return to the lineup for the Cowboys since being injured. Last week against the WFT in his first week back from injury, he saw the second-most snaps at WR just barely getting beaten out by CeeDee Lamb. On top of that, he recorded 51 receiving yards and a Rec TD adding up to 16.1 points. I think Cooper surpasses 13.4 points this week and booms. 

TE Mike Gesicki 10.6 pts vs. NYJ – BUST

Gesicki is very inconsistent in his position. He has gone over his point total for this week 6 times this year and has also gone underneath that total 6 times. I debated, but I don’t think he will boom this week against the Jets. I also think that because the Jets are a terrible team, it will counterintuitively hurt Gesicki more. My thinking has applied like that for a while now in this projection style pick’em. Gesicki busts in an extremely low confidence selection. 

TE Dallas Goedert 10.4 pts vs. WSH – BUST
Goedert and the Eagles play the WFT this week and Dallas is coming off a 28.5 pt performance before his bye week. Despite that, because of his inconsistency this season and for the same reasoning as Gesicki, he busts. It also appears that the WFT team’s defense is really good against the TE position this year. This selection, as with Mike Gesicki, are lower on the confidence scale. It is no coincidence that low confidence picks are associated with TE selections. We have seen that time and time again this year.